READ AND SPREAD IT, PLEASE

A new post from Fernando Betancor's blog, Common Sense, that deserves to be read, memorized, and of course spread it all over the Internet.

I can't resist to copy awesome quotes from it (pics, do not belong to the original, and have only ilustrative function):

Mr. Rajoy gaffe: And the European?

• Rajoy’s policy of persecution has continuously backfired. Three years ago, it was almost impossible to find Catalan independence in a Google search much less in mainstream media. Thanks to the folly of the Spanish government, you now have the issue routinely covered in the New York Times, the BBC, Le Monde, Der Spiegel. More unsettling for Rajoy is the fact that numerous European governments have begun to take notice and in a manner wholly unfavorable to the Spanish position. While Germany and France continue to indulge Madrid, some important middle tier nations, like Denmark[4], have held Parliamentary Q&A regarding the situation, recognizing the peaceful and democratic nature of the “Catalan Way” and issuing statements urging Madrid and Barcelona to negotiate peacefully. Even some US Congressmen have gotten on the bandwagon[5]. That is not exactly support for independence, but it is far from Rajoy’s “resistance is futile” stance. Nor should Mr. Rajoy continue to count on the support of the Franco-German partnership unconditionally."

President Juncker: Spain´s puching bag?

• "During what should have been routine hearings at the European Commission[6], the EU Minister of Economic Affairs Pierre Moscovici questioned Spain’s proposed budget, doubting that the country could meet the deficit reduction targets that had been agreed to with the bailout and also expressing worry that Spanish reforms remained incomplete and were unlikely to continue. This is was a complete change of tone from previous rubber-stamp sessions: after all, Madrid has never met its deficit reduction targets despite being the poster-child of austerity, yet it was always given a pass. This was a torpedo in the side of Mr. Rajoy’s electoral ship, since the EU’s good seal of approval was one of the government’s (few) selling points. Mr. Moscovici was then torpedoed by his boss, EU President Jean-Claude Juncker, who doesn’t like anyone else to deliver bad news. Then the Germans rushed in, with Wolfgang Schäuble doling out his now usual “nein” and declaring that they would “take it offline”. So much for democratic transparency. The cracks in the arrangement were nevertheless evident as Mariano Rajoy desperately began to burn up the phone lines. In the end, it appears that everyone will simply agree to disagree and ignore the implications of the defective budget, which will be left up to the next government to correct[7]"

Catalan Victory, don´t doubt about that!

• "Desperate to apply more pressure on the Catalans, despite the fact that the scaremongering tactics have not just failed but backfired, Madrid pressured Standard & Poor into issuing a downgrade of the Catalan regional bond[8], while having upgraded Spain’s rating the week prior[9]. The absurdity and clear bias of these two rating changes ought to be self-evident: if the threat of independence is bad news for Catalonia, how on earth could that same threat be good news for Spain? And if the Spanish rating is based on the improved performance of the economy, how is it that Catalonia isn’t also benefiting from the improvement? Not to mention the fact that S&P makes no effort to solve its own internal logical inconsistency: if the Catalan debt is regional, then it is backstopped by the sovereign and should move in parallel with that sovereign. If Catalonia becomes independent, then you can no longer treat it as regional debt; it must be rated as sovereign debt with an analysis of the capability of the new Catalan Republic to service it. No such analysis is forthcoming of course, so don’t hold your breath[10].

US Representative Dana Rohrabacher (R,CA), met Catalonia Delegation in US Congress

• If anything, the S&P decision only plays into the hands of pro-independence groups. They will pick on the rating agency’s citation of “weak budgetary performance” as a reason for the downgrade to argue: “Of course! When we send Madrid 16 billion euros a year and get only 4 billion back how can our budget be strong?” They will say – rightly – that Catalonia will never get a fair hearing so long as it is subordinate to Spain. The solution for both conundrums, in their eyes, is simple and obvious and what they’ve been working towards."

A people on the move

• Spain’s weakness is very real and Catalonia might yet be able to take advantage of it to break free. If the continued survival of the European project is Germany’s goal, then having the Spanish turn Plaça Catalunya into Tianamen Square is even less conducive to it than having the Hungarians set up a new Iron Curtain with Serbia. Yet Spain has a long history of suicidal stubbornness, and the use of force becomes increasingly likely as the general election date nears. The Partido Popular may decide that the only issue that will see it through to victory is Catalonia; and so they may attempt to provoke a rupture in November in order to quash it and so reap the electoral benefit. The worst sort of populist nationalism? Yes…but it just might work[11]."

Operation Mas hunt?

• "The obvious ploy would be to push the Constitutional Court to suspend Artur Mas from his functions as Catalan President and make him ineligible to serve in any public capacity for a period of 5 or more years. Mr. Mas has already said that he might consider such a ruling as illegal and ignore it. Mr. Rajoy then countered that if the Constitutional Court ruling was ignored, he might have to suspend that Catalan charter of autonomy, so sorry. That is where the conversation ended, but Mr. Mas has already said that the “roadmap to independence” had numerous “early exit” scenarios, depending on the actions of the Spanish government. This is obviously one of them. Thus the Partido Popular has a crisis ready served and at hand should its electoral fortunes begin to wane."